- Good afternoon, Valery Dmitrievich, let's start with the latest events. Here, again, searches began at night. Moreover, searches are no longer at the homes of politicians, but at those who were identified as participants in these protests, as Sergei Semyonovich Sobyanin called them, "mass riots." Although Varvara found out that the article of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation “Mass riots”, what happened had nothing to do with it.


- Yes, I also, of course, looked at this article, which is charged with the accused, and, of course, there is nothing in common between the content of the article and what we all observed, personally and indirectly, on July 27, there is not a trace. The authorities are now trying to stop the growth of protests in Moscow. And she does it in two usual ways, or rather, three. The first way is to isolate potential and current leaders. The second is to hang the sword of Damocles of criminal prosecution over all potential participants in future actions. And third, she is launching a propaganda campaign. Methodical instructions were received, that behind all this, allegedly, there is the State Department, no more, no less. Look how quickly Trump reacted to Navalny's poisoning (real or supposed). And that all this, they say, is not without reason and that it is necessary at all costs to set the "fire of the orange revolution", the "orange plague" in the heart of Russia, in the Russian capital. There is a natural analogy with the "bog case". But I think that so far the government is not ready to go that far. She would rather intimidate. But if the protest continues, I am inclined to believe that it will continue in an unsanctioned form. Because those who came out on July 27 felt the charm of freedom.

Protests in an unsanctioned form will continue, and then this will entail tougher repression. But this still will not stop the protests, as they have become decentralized.

This is becoming like the yellow vest movement in France, where protests have been going on for almost a year, if my memory serves me, and where the organizer has not been identified. It is quite possible to do this both in Moscow and in other large cities. Russian Federation. What we saw on July 27 is the transition of the political crisis from a latent phase to an open phase. This is the beginning of the open phase of the political crisis in the Russian Federation.

- From the point of view of social psychology, how do today's protests differ from the protests of 2012? Someone says that people have become more evil. Someone says that they felt that, unlike in 2012, there are no prospects.

Your question actually contains the answer. First, there is nothing to lose. And everyone understands this well. Secondly, any illusions about the fact that you can go to the polls and achieve something, they are disappearing right now. In Russia there have always been supporters of gradual steps, evolutionary action. All these hopes are dashed. You go to the polls, don't go, you just won't be allowed to them anyway. And third, people are tired of being afraid. It is very important. They are tired of being afraid. Here is the part that took to the streets on July 27, she is freed from this fear, she broke this barrier or it became lower for her and they are aware of this .. This was not the case in 2012, when the first repressions hit. But now they know that participation in politics has to be paid, and they are ready. That is, there was, if you like, a natural moral and psychological political selection. And this selection will forge, I'm not afraid of this word, a galaxy of real revolutionaries.

- Yesterday, one of my acquaintances wrote, saying that I was listening to the frightening speeches of the Prosecutor General, who was pumping something up about the riots, that now we will put things in order, and so on, and the whole of Moscow and the region knows that his son is engaged in the garbage business and he polluted the entire suburbs with his garbage dumps. Here he is sitting with a serious look, broadcasting something, and people know that the stink from landfills is part of his son's business. That is, they were no longer perceived precisely as legitimate power. After all, the same police who screwed people in the center of Moscow are the same people who beat people at landfills and during spot developments, acting as servants of the construction and garbage mafia. That is, people begin to develop some kind of immunity to these formidable statements by the security forces.

“People have gone through school. I fully agree with your explanation, Yuri, that the authorities there have lost their legitimacy, because the key representatives are mired in crimes. This is a pure truth. But what matters is how people perceive it. They are tired of seeing all this, they are tired of enduring it and they understand that they were left with no other choice. They just didn't leave it.
When we will write books about how the next revolution in Russia began, we will use all these terms to legitimize power. When we consider this at the everyday level, in our everyday life, what words do we use with you? Enough. I don't have the strength to endure it anymore. Enough. It's a feeling of moral satiety, right? What, then, if we endure, we cease to be human. it's not even a question of whether I'm a citizen or not. We just stop being human. Here people protect their human dignity in this way.

—That is, "not to be cattle", as in this song?

-Yes. By the way, this is a very good song. It could very well be an anthem. Yes, "don't be a beast" is exactly right.
- Yes ... In your opinion, is this why they decided not to allow candidates? Was it some kind of miscalculation of the authorities or did they just not care at all?

- Well, you know, Var, both are true. Firstly, they are completely lazy, well, just completely, they don’t want to excel, they rely only on blunt force, here on blunt force and absolute disregard for public opinion. And secondly, you can put it first, there was a mistake in assessing the situation. Decided: summer, people will swallow. Well, before swallowed. Remember? Well, since they already hawali, they are grabbing this time too. Ah, don't hide it.

I have a feeling that for many who went to the rally on July 20, on the 27th, who will come out on August 3, they don’t care who the candidate is. They have a sense of the moral intolerance of the situation.

This is what I think is very important. Moreover, the process of collecting signatures in itself... To be honest, if you collect signatures, you somehow involve people in this matter, each of the candidates involves several thousand people.

We have said several times that people have changed their psychological image, they do not want to endure anymore, they want changes. Not all of them are willing to pay for change, it's true, but those who came out on July 27 are clearly willing to pay for change. including their own, perhaps, freedom, and their own health. It is obvious. To be honest, I did not see such bitterness in the 12th year. It wasn't easy. Then people hoped that they could somehow slip through, everything would be much easier. And now they understand that they will have to fight for real. Here is the qualitative difference of the situation. And the government also did not appreciate the change in mass sentiment. Moreover, a qualitative change in mass moods. So, she made mistakes and it could have been avoided, or at least of this magnitude. because for the height of summer this is an unprecedented mobilization.

—By the way, in event, which on August 3, almost twice as many people have already registered as on the 27th. How can you explain this?

- There is such a field of scientific knowledge - the study of revolution, revolutionary studies. It says that if society perceives the government as illegitimate, then repression by the authorities is perceived as illegal and increases the political mobilization of the protesters. This is exactly what we have come to now. The more pressure, the stronger the force of opposition. Now we are seeing this in real time. This is considered a very important quality point for any political crisis, it means that we are just starting to crawl into a revolution already. Not in a crisis, but in a revolution, when people have a growing desire to resist.

“Yesterday we found out that the event itself was done according to a very interesting scheme. There are about 5 points on the boulevards, starting with Strastnoy and ending with Pokrovka. And then there is a circular motion along the boulevard ring.

— Visualization is important for the protest. In my opinion, the colors of the national flag, such as a ribbon or badge, can be used for this. Then people understand that there are many of them, and arresting people for having a badge with a national flag is already a recognition that a coup d'état has taken place in Russia.

- In your opinion, have the elections already ended, or maybe Pamfilova will be able to turn on the ombudsman regime and play some role again?

- Well, it's not Pamfilova who decides. Her powers have always been limited, this is decided at a higher level. In this case, the policy towards the Moscow protests is determined by the security forces at the federal level. Sobyanin is here on the side-baked, they gave the text and said "Read, protect the National Guard." By the way, on July 27, the National Guard was instructed not to spare batons. They were told "We will smear you, don't worry." Because of this, tensions arose between them and the police.

—And who does Gorbunov from the Moscow City Electoral Committee work for?

- In this case, everything was transferred to the jurisdiction of the security forces, because the security forces are now preventing a color revolution. On July 27, snipers were sitting on the roof of Tverskaya.

- Do I understand correctly that we now have a nomination to the Moscow City Duma is equated with the "orange revolution"?

“They haven’t gotten that far yet, though. They concluded, I don't know on what basis. But, given that these are people with serious mental problems, those people who assess the situation. I don't know what intelligence data they received.

“But it seems to me that they just invent them themselves.

You see, that's what they're afraid of. They are most afraid of the revolution. They view the revolution to themselves like generals preparing for past battles. They think a mob will gather and take over some government building and set up camp there. So it must be prevented. Therefore, they, like Pavlov's dog, reacted to the appearance of a tent on July 14 near the building of the Moscow City Electoral Committee. This immediately became a signal to them that this was preparation for a revolution.

— Do you know that specially hired provocateurs were carrying these tents, waving signs of candidates near them. But that's not even the point, the point is that there would be no tents if it weren't for those vile scenes when the signatures of opposition candidates were rejected. Moreover, everyone knew that the signatures that the United Russia "self-nominated people" had collected were not collected from living people, but for some reason it was from them that the signatures were checked according to an accelerated procedure.

Everything you say is true, but 2-3 years ago society would have swallowed this whole situation, would have been indignant, but would not have gone out into the street. Now people have changed, they began to go out. And this is very important.

- Do you agree that there are actually very serious economic motives here, because they do not need independent, not corrupt candidates in the Moscow City Duma?

- Well, imagine: someone will examine the budget under a magnifying glass and say, “Look, why so many billions are spent on curbs and landscaping, and not on hospitals?”

- And not just to consider! Nobody bothers to consider even now, we ourselves rummage through it regularly. But with the powers of deputies, it seems to me that it is possible to create a completely different level of informing citizens about what is happening.

- Certainly! There is a lot of money at stake. And the deputies have legal access to this information and will be able to quickly share it thanks to social networks, to which everyone has access in Moscow.

Information about the budget of Moscow for 2019-2021 / Mos.ru

- Probably, the authorities "ran into" even with the appearance of well-organized newindependentmunicipal deputies in 2017? And this effect causes additional fear?

- First of all, yes. Secondly, everything is being considered with an eye on the 2021 elections. Imagine, there, Yashin succeeds, Sobol succeeds. Yashin and Sobol are connected with Navalny. Gudkov succeeds. They publicize all these unseemly deeds, they become very well-known and popular figures on a nationwide or citywide scale, what will happen in the 21st year? They think with this sight. And here they are thinking about the transit of power in order to run everything smoothly. They must win in 80% of the constituencies during the Duma elections. There is already such a plan, 80% must be taken in order to ensure a majority in the State Duma. In voting on party lists, United Russia's chances are already declining almost every day.

In fact, it was not clear initially, and now it remains unclear how many of the candidates from the opposition could get into the Moscow City Duma. But the authorities do not want to take risks, this is important. It comes from the fact that people are hiding their true passions now, more hiding than before, and therefore the results of the elections may be unexpected. That is, they do not even trust sociology, and sociology did not look the best. At least in some counties. So we decided not to risk it. This decision was made from the start. It was a fundamental preliminary directive: not to let Gudkov, Yashin, or Sobol in. And just on this issue there was a complete consensus between the presidential administration and the Moscow mayor's office. Nobody expected such consequences. Now they probably think they should have let Mitrokhin in right away, then they would have split the conditional united front. Maybe someone else, they think, maybe one of the candidates who is less likely to get through, you know? And then they took everyone and "banned". And it was possible not all, but the most dangerous. Just think, 1-2 people would pass, not very pleasant, but still tolerable. But they, you see, had to achieve 100% guarantees. Here is "achieved". In fact, the institution of elections no longer exists.

—It seems to me, you know, they simply did not expect that the candidates would be prepared, that they would have headquarters.

- We did not expect, honestly, that it would be possible to collect such a number of signatures. Didn't expect it.

- And this cannot be the result of complete incompetence in political matters of the “new” team of Sobyanin? This is Sergunina, who used to deal with city property in general.

- I can say for sure that all the people who work with her on the subject of elections speak extremely negatively about her. They say that Rakova, no matter how she was treated, was a very good political manager, able to clearly respond to analytics, to changing situations, to modify the political behavior of the authorities. Sergunina is completely different. This is a question of how to earn more in the elections.

—Even so? This is money laundering for the campaign, isn't it?

— Giant money is allocated for the campaign. I'm not kidding at all. It allocates to field work, sociology, conducting and supporting independent candidates. It was possible to receive a budget, but several times the budget of the opposition. We agreed to run as an independent candidate on a conditional basis, saying that I would campaign. You could have been given a lot.

—Corrupt officials of this lower level have now brought the country to the brink of revolution.

“Revolutions usually happen that way. Revolutionaries do not lead society to revolution. Power leads. And not because of a great mind, but because of stupidity, mistakes and greed. Here are three motives. There are studies that show that all revolutions, from two-thirds to three-quarters of revolutions, begin as a result of the mistakes of the authorities, and not as a result of objective facts and actions of revolutionaries. Nothing like this. The government simply provokes itself. We see in the example of Moscow how this happens.

- As for nonsense - Mikhail Svetov was detained right at the exit from the mayor's office. A truce came to negotiate - and he was detained. That is, not only were the negotiations themselves of an ultimatum, but the parliamentarian was also detained. This is fine? Is this a mistake or intent?

- This is their way of thinking, they think like that. But by doing so, the government creates serious problems for itself. Who will now talk with you about something or who will believe even a single word of yours? Speaking in the jargon characteristic of the ruling generation, this is all very un-boyish. Boys don't act like that. In response, they will receive a similar reaction. They show a propensity for unmotivated violence. People's hands are untied. What do we see? The deanonymization of the policemen, the fighters of the National Guard has begun, and threats to their families have allegedly already begun. And what will happen next? This is not what the opposition is doing. This is very important to understand. Now any discussion about the need for negotiations is over. Now no one will argue about whether it is necessary to achieve change in a revolutionary way, or a radical one. The discussion is over. The government itself has put an end to it.

- So, if we draw a conclusion here, people have ceased to perceive the authorities as a party to negotiations?
- Yes. In a broad sense, they are no longer perceived as power. They are perceived as usurpers. It is very important. You can use a strong expression - as an occupying power. But I would say that if you are not legitimate, you become usurpers. You have no right. And if the usurper resorts to violence...

- That is278thArticle of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.

“Then he pushes those who oppose the usurpation of power to violence. In past interviews, we have already discussed the Moscow City Duma. Did the opposition have a chance to get a majority, like, say, in 1996? No. Maximum - 4-5 seats. We understand this well.

— And what about preventive arrests of oppositionists? The country arrested for a period of 10 to 30 days all independent candidates, outraged by the illegal culling of signatures. This is a scandal! In fact, society was defiantly "planted" with these false cases, which in no way correspond to the law and reality, just like drugs were given to Ivan Golunov.

- This is mistake. Politically, this is a mistake. Protests will appear anyway, there will be other leaders. People have shown the ability to self-organize and act in addition to legitimate leaders. This is the most dangerous thing that can happen - when the authorities deprive themselves of the other side of the negotiations, the subject of the negotiations. When the autonomist movement appears, which says: well, what can we talk about with you? You will arrest us all. We will start acting anonymously. This immediately increases the degree of violence, when people are afraid to negotiate, hide their faces, but at the same time are ready to protest, this automatically leads to an increase in the degree of confrontation and the degree of violence. Again, whose fault is this? This is a self-evident answer. This is important to understand. You and I are witnessing an absolute textbook deployment of a well-known political scientist and historian the thesis that "The authorities pave the way to upheavals." It's not the opposition, it's the government that does it. Also notice how she stubbornly and consistently does it. Step by step.

- Valery Dmitrievich, then the last question. I will ask again about the 3rd number. On the 27th, a lot of people came out - despite some stuffing intimidating, warning about some provocations, secret weapons. In fact it was even a very powerful undercover company. Now they have already moved from stuffing and intimidation to specific arrests and imprisonments, they have opened cases under criminal articles, for which there is no probation, there is only one sanction - imprisonment. Now, if, despite all this, as many people come out on the 3rd as on the 27th, what will this say, in your opinion?

- This will just say that the protests are moving into a new quality. In its, at least, moral and psychological aspect. Further, in the autumn, the protesters should unite, move with a nationwide platform. It is impossible to be limited only to Moscow. To succeed, one must go beyond Moscow. I think the protesters will come to feel it. Now the protesters are just testing their own strength and power. It is important for people to feel their new state.

I had a feeling that on July 27th they caught the drive, what I observed, my extensive communication incl. with those people who came for the first time, I was surprised by their reaction: “You know, we liked it, we will definitely go out! We want to fight for freedom, we like to fight for freedom!”. So they wrote to me. I think this is a very important moral and psychological shift. And then it will push towards other political forms: towards unification, towards the development of a long-term strategy, because in order to solve the problem of power in the country, a long-term strategy and nationwide actions are needed. It's understandable, right? We'll get to that in the fall. I want to say that the repression will be tougher. The repressive machine will work throughout the year, counting from August. But by next year it will just break.

Why do you think it will break?

She won't be able to handle the pressure she's going to face. She will face mounting protests. First. And secondly, a very strong moral and psychological breakdown will occur inside the machine itself. Risks will rise, you know? The risks for those who are inside the machine itself will increase sharply, motivation will disappear. I can still understand, conditionally, the advanced National Guard, who receive 50-60 thousand rubles. For them, who came from small towns, this is a lot of money. Plus hatred for Muscovites. Imagine these protests across Russia. The National Guard is definitely not strong enough. By the way, there are not so many of them at all. I mean capable. This is the first. Secondly, there are officers, they will begin to think: is it worth risking their own lives and future for the sake of the generals. In any political crisis, this moment happens when the loyalty of the repressive machine begins to crack. And according to my estimates, not only mine, by the way, the loyalty of the repressive machine will not last long.

Interviewed by Varvara Gryaznova and Yuri Ivanov.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

I don’t know in detail what the situation is with the fires in Siberia, but, as my local comrades explained, at first they thought that it was not necessary to extinguish, and then, when they realized what was needed, it turned out that it would not work. And we decided that now we must continue to say that it is not necessary, because if you say that, after all, it was necessary, it will turn out that you crap yourself.

I have in primary school there was such a classmate who crap one's pants in class and strenuously pretended that nothing had happened. He sat at his desk with a concentrated face and did not get up. And everyone, of course, understood that something was wrong, they sniffed, whispered, in general, it was uncomfortable. At the break, they found out what happened and with whom. Because everyone was running, jumping, and he was sitting - gloomy, serious, immersed in a textbook.
The teacher saved us. She said: "Vasya, I'm letting you go, go home." He got up and left. And everyone breathed a sigh of relief. True, not immediately.

In the situation with the fires in Siberia, it feels like the teacher is not in the class, or she has a very bad cold, and she does not feel anything. And so those who crap themselves continue to sit and be silent, pretending that nothing is happening. It's disturbing and sad.

The story of the elections to the Moscow City Duma is even sadder. The feeling that the teacher in this class crap. But she, as if nothing had happened, continues to teach the lesson, and when someone expresses dissatisfaction, she puts deuces and calls the athlete to put things in order in the class. And he says: “Guys, what don't you like? Look how beautiful our curtains are!”
So we donated money to them...

We, independent municipal deputies of Moscow, express our solidarity with
the demand of tens of thousands of Muscovites who went out to peacefully protest on July 20, 2019.

We stand for fair competitive elections as the only way for peaceful change.

We once again call on the Moscow City Electoral Commission to register all opposition candidates for deputies of the Moscow City Duma.

We are confident that such a decision will ensure civil peace and tranquility in our city.

We demand from Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and the Moscow authorities not to interfere with the Moscow City Electoral Commission to impartially consider the legitimate complaints of candidates about the refusal to register and take the only correct and legal decision on their registration so as not to aggravate the social situation in our city.

If the city authorities continue to block political competition and insist on an unfair and illegal decision to withdraw the candidates who have collected signatures, we are ready to come out with our demands to a people's gathering near the Moscow City Hall on Saturday, July 27, together with our voters. With our personal authority and our presence, we are ready to support Muscovites at this event.

We call on the police to ensure the safety of citizens exercising their constitutional right to peaceful protest and are committed to helping citizens protect the interests of society and local government.

1 Filina Elena Evgenievna, Prospect Vernadsky;
2 Filchenko Galina Alexandrovna, Tverskoy;
3 Vyacheslav Konstantinovich Titov, Tverskoy;
4 Yakubovich Yakov Borisovich, Tverskoy
5 Kotov Viktor Nikolaevich, Basmanny;
6 Tikhonova Asiya Firdavisovna, Khamovniki;
7 Pishchalnikov Alexander Sergeevich, Troparevo-Nikulino;
8 Volnov Yury Anatolyevich, Preobrazhenskoe;
9 Dikarev Vasily Andreevich, Yakimanka;
10 Shcherbakova Yulia Anatolyevna, Cheryomushki;
11 Dmitry Alexandrovich Petrov, Yakimanka;
12 Melkumov Alexander Alexandrovich, Khamovniki;
13 Venediktov Vadim Arkadyevich, Khamovniki;
14 Nakhimson Alexander Emmanuilovich, Khamovniki;
15 Surikova Irina Evgenievna, Filevsky Park;
16 Ataulin Vadim Rafailovich, Voikovsky;
17 Ilyin Nikita Igorevich, Voikovsky;
18 Romashkevich Anastasia Yurievna, Presnensky;
19 Kolodkin Efim Romanovich, Arbat;
20 Vilents Alexey Viktorovich, Cheryomushki;
21 Komissarova Natalya Lvovna, Preobrazhenskoye;
22 Kakitelashvili Sergey Ilyich, Arbat;
23 Zalishchak Vladimir Borisovich, Donskoy;
24 Alifanov Anton Viktorovich, Khamovniki;
25 Krashakova Tatyana Vladimirovna, Kuntsevo;
26 Tsukasov Sergey Sergeevich, Ostankino;
27 Chudnovsky Alexander Olegovich, Khamovniki;
28 Alieva Elizaveta Romanovna, Maryina Grove;
29 Kasimova Tatyana Leonidovna, Khamovniki;
30 Chernikova Tatyana Grigorievna, Troparevo-Nikulino;
31 Alyokhina Natalya Anatolyevna,
Dorogomilovo;
32 Andreeva Tatyana Gennadievna, Dorogomilovo;
33 Ulyanenko Irina Anatolyevna, Dorogomilovo;
34 Trifonov Sergey Yurievich, Dorogomilovo;
35 Rusakova Elena Leonidovna, Gagarinsky;
36 Gongalsky Maxim Bronislavovich, Ramenki;
37 Prushinsky Sergey Anatolyevich, Teply Stan;
38 Kruglova Anna Lvovna, Sokol;
39 Azar Ilya Vilyamovich, Khamovniki;
40 Truntaev Gennady Fedorovich, Timiryazevsky;
41 Vdovin Sergei Evgenievich, Timiryazevsky;
42 Galyamina Yulia Evgenievna, Timiryazevsky;
43 Morev Andrey Zinovievich, Yakimanka;
44 Kolesnik Anton Valerievich, Airport;
45 Biryukov Mikhail Yurievich, Krasnoselsky;
46 Gospodarik Nikolai Yurievich, Khamovniki;
47 Zuev Yury Borisovich, Gagarinsky;
48 Zelenov Dmitry Gennadievich, Yakimanka;
49 Dolinsky Maxim Semyonovich, Meshchansky;
50 Selkova Elena Andreevna, Cheryomushki;
51 Khalezov Ivan Aleksandrovich, Bogorodskoye;
52 Tatsiy Egor Sergeevich, Zamoskvorechye;
53 Leonova Vera Aleksandrovna, Zamoskvorechye;
54 Barantsev Viktor Sergeevich, Zamoskvorechye;
55 Panov Alexey Vladimirovich, Konkovo;
56 Zhuykova Nadezhda Mikhailovna, Academic;
57 Gryaznova Anna Mikhailovna, Khamovniki;
58 Gagarin Alexander Nikolaevich, Troparevo-Nikulino;
59 Tsarenko Tatyana Vladimirovna, Izmailovo;
60 Velmakin Mikhail Vadimovich, Otradnoye;
61 Reinhimmel Yuri Alexandrovich, Meshchansky;
62 Gretskaya Marina Valerievna, Tverskoy;
63 Yashin Ilya Valerievich, Krasnoselsky;
64 Belavsky Evgeny Vladimirovich, Timiryazevsky
65 Gruzdeva Alexandra Nikolaevna, Troparevo-Nikulino
66 Vitkovskaya Kira Georgievna, Vnukovskoye village
67 Vasiliev Nikolai Vladimirovich, Presnensky
68 Gershberg Evgenia Igorevna, Troparevo-Nikulino
69 Vasandani Tatyana Mikhailovna, Academic
70 Khananashvili Nodari Lotarievich, Academic
71 Oleshkevich Denis Valerievich, Savelovsky
72 Lukyanenko Alexey Vladimirovich, Zyuzino;
73 Ivanov Mikhail Sergeevich, Zyuzino;
74 Gurylev Boris Vyacheslavovich, Zyuzino;
75 Kezin Mikhail Sergeevich, Ostankino;
76 Petrunin Maxim Maksimovich, Krylatskoe;
77 Mostinskaya Olga Sergeevna, Filevsky Park;
78 Glek Igor Vladimirovich, Troparevo-Nikulino;
79 Ivashkina Elena Valerievna, Presnensky;
80 Khoroshilov Vasily Vadimovich, Academic;
81 Shaposhnikova Anna Svetlana Alfredovna, Northern Tushino;
82 Yarilin Pavel Anatolyevich, Airport;
83 Makarova Natalya Viktorovna, Tagansky;
84 Kopkina Irina Nikolaevna, Strogino;
85 Mishchenko Ilya Alexandrovich, Krasnoselsky;
86 Silaeva Ekaterina Gennadievna, Northern Izmailovo;
87 Guller Nonna Viktorovna, Arbat;
88 Prokuronov Denis Dmitrievich, Filevsky Park;
89 Denezhkina Marina Nikolaevna, Butyrsky;
90 Ber Ilya Leonidovich, Preobrazhenskoye;
91 Korovin Vadim Alexandrovich, Filevsky Park;
92 Andrey Larichev, Fili-Davydkovo;
93 Alexey Alekseevich Devyatov, Fili-Davydkov;
94 Klochkov Dmitry Vladimirovich, Maryina Roshcha
95 Stusov Anton Alexandrovich, Academic;
96 Dovgal Sergey Fedorovich, Timiryazevsky;
97 Remizova Evgenia Mikhailovna, Basmanny;
98 Kuksina Natalya Sergeevna, Timiryazevsky;
99 Kravchuk Olga Vladimirovna, Rostokino;
100 Langar Artem Rakhimullovich, Gagarinsky; Dmitry Gudkov (5th district), Director of the Anti-Corruption Foundation Ivan Zhdanov(8th district), to a municipal deputy from Zyuzino Konstantin Jankauskas(31 districts). In addition, the working group considered complaints Lyubov Sobol(43 district) and Elena Rusakova(37 district), however, the forecast for registration is also negative, which is why Lyubov Sobol

https://www.site/2017-05-23/politolog_valeriy_solovey

“Putin may well refuse the next term”

Political scientist Valery Solovey: the political crisis that has begun will last two or three years and lead to the most serious changes

It cannot be ruled out that Vladimir Putin will ultimately decide to avoid a new presidential run. It's one thing to lead a country on the rise, and another thing to lead a downtrend and unclear prospects Nail Fattakhov/website

Recent news: Rosneft buys glasses, teaspoons and caviar bowls at a price of tens of thousands of rubles each - at the same time, according to government forecasts, over the next 20 years, the average salary in the country will grow only by half, and the shares of education and health care in GDP will decrease. At parliamentary hearings on youth policy, the head of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, Valery Fedorov, assured the deputies that we do not have a “revolutionary-minded significant group of young people who demand change here and now” - while the number of the Russian Guard has doubled since its foundation. Our regular interlocutor, well-known political scientist Valery Solovey, is convinced that the government is really seriously afraid of the consolidation of the protest, but is not able to change itself, which only brings its end closer.

“Elite groups are very afraid to even think about a conspiracy”

- Valery Dmitrievich, recently Zhirinovsky said that, perhaps, instead of Putin, his protege will go to the presidential elections. Putin himself, quite habitually for himself, said that it was not yet time to talk about participation in the elections. How do you interpret these statements?

- This is Putin's psychological signature: he is in no hurry to make important decisions public, delaying them until the last minute. I do not rule out that it gives him pleasure to watch someone from his entourage run and fuss, trying to try on the successor's laurels.

- A few facts published in recent months. According to the FBK, "Putin's cook" Prigozhin spent 180 billion rubles on contracts with the Ministry of Defense. In 2016, 3.7 billion rubles were spent on remuneration for top managers of Rosneft, despite the fact that the company's debts reached a historical maximum. And the Ministry of Internal Affairs - a special aircraft with a study and a double bed for 1.7 billion rubles. Well, the most compelling example: developers plan to “master” 3.5 trillion rubles during the Moscow renovation. And all this while, according to information voiced in the State Duma, there are already 23 million poor people in the country. Do you think Putin is able to moderate the appetites of the System he built himself? Will he do this if he is re-elected president?

- I think that Putin may well refuse the next term. The answer to this lies in your own question. It is one thing to be the president of a country that, thanks to high oil prices, is prospering and its people are getting richer. And even if this population does not really like the president, “tightening the screws” and restricting political freedoms, they still do not take to the streets and are not very indignant. It is another matter to be president in a downtrend in the economy, in a situation of long-term crisis, with growing anger among the population and gloomy social prospects.

I will add that in Russia the incomes of the population are actually frozen. And, as you understand, this will only aggravate the situation that we are discussing. According to available forecasts, the standard of living in 2013 in Russia will be restored by 2023-2024. That is, if Putin goes to the 2018 elections and is elected, this will happen only by the end of his new presidential term. So in any case, nothing good can be expected for objective reasons.

Alexey Filippov/RIA Novosti

Another reason is the fatigue of the population from the same person. Being at the pinnacle of power for nearly 20 years is morally and psychologically tiring for society and leads to the "burnout" of the politician himself.

And there is another factor. It exists, but it is silent. Let's call it factor X: Putin has publicly reflected on several occasions that he would like to retire while still in decent shape.

Gazeta.ru: Putin may run for president as a self-nominated candidate

As for the appetites of his entourage, there is a completely academic concept of "Putin's system." This system is personalistic. Thus, Putin's departure will mean the end of this system. That is, all the people who during Putin's rule amassed fabulous capital (we are not talking about all top managers, but about the core of Putin's entourage) may lose both their posts and their assets. This is an axiom of the crisis of personalist regimes: when the author and guarantor of such a regime leaves, then, accordingly, the key group of the elite suffers tangible losses.

- So, we should expect a fight for assets?

- Not necessary. The beneficiaries of the Putin system feel very well that they need to protect themselves with guarantees that would allow them to preserve their assets. But nowhere in the world has this been achieved, and Russia is unlikely to be an exception. In the end, any new government, in order to create a sense of justice in society, will have to sacrifice someone. In such cases, they choose those who, under the previous regime, made a lot of money.

- Perhaps Putin retains exceptional authority and influence due to his foreign policy activity and reputation as one of the leading politicians in the world. How do you assess the reliability of this Putin asset: is it stable, growing stronger, weakening? And who, instead of Putin, is able to resolve relations with the USA, Europe, China, the Middle East today?

It has been like this for a long time, but now the situation is changing for the worse. Although Putin remains one of the world's most powerful leaders, he is also considered almost "the most dangerous person in the world." This kind of reputation does not create a desire to build long-term relationships, but rather encourages confrontation and isolation. dangerous person". See how the US along with Saudi Arabia and with the support of Turkey, they are actually building a “Middle East NATO”. Is it not clear that our free hand in Syria will now decrease?

And so on all foreign policy azimuths, including the Chinese direction. The US and China are negotiating among themselves, and Russia's position does not look very strong. We cannot agree on anything significant with the United States due to the actual persecution of Trump in connection with the “Russian trace” in the American elections. Our relations with the European Union are stagnating.

Press Service of the President of the Russian Federation

- Is it possible in the future, in the event of Putin's indecision, who will be torn between moneybags and impoverished people, reactionaries and democrats, zealots of a "special path" and supporters of open Russia, a "version of the State Emergency Committee", a coup d'état? What do you think the army will say in this case? What is the role of Sergei Shoigu in the System and what is his position towards the reactionaries?

- No conspiracy against Putin is possible, because all Russian elite groups, even those that are wary and negative towards him, are very afraid. Not only to organize a conspiracy, but even to think about it. As for Shoigu, one should not exaggerate the importance of his personality. He's not nearly as brutal as the impression he's trying to make. In addition, it is unacceptable to the vast majority of elite groups.

“Local protests can merge into a nationwide coalition against the authorities”

- According to the Levada Center, 90% of Russians consider corruption in government unacceptable, and almost 70% hold Putin personally responsible for it. More than half say they are tired of waiting for Putin to change, especially in the fight against corruption. At the same time, the president signed the "Timchenko law" and continues to support the discredited Medvedev (45% of citizens are in favor of his resignation to one degree or another). If Putin does go to the polls, is his electoral position so stable because of these apparent contradictions between voters' expectations and his actions?

- The figures that you cite just testify to the moral and psychological fatigue of society. This is the natural state of things. In any country, people get tired of their rulers, even if they are lucky and pretty. It is believed that the acceptable term of government of the country is 9-12 years. After that, fatigue inevitably sets in.

As for Putin's electoral positions, he still has a lot of support, it is higher than that of any other potential candidate. And yet it is not as great as sociological surveys announce to us.

The point is not that the polls are cunning, but that people do not want to tell the truth, do not want to express their true opinion to interviewers. They are simply afraid or give so-called socially approved answers. Therefore, I would rate Putin's support as significant, but by no means phenomenally high.

Nail Fattakhov/website

- You claim that a new political period began with the rallies on March 26. However, if we still take into account the data of opinion polls, there is no doubt that if Putin goes to the presidential elections, he will win them: according to the Levada Center at the beginning of May, 48% are ready to vote for Putin, only 1 for Navalny % with 42% undecided. What is the difference between the current political period and the previous one? What are the facts about the differences?

- I assume that in the fall the protest will escalate, and this aggravation will be long-term. Accordingly, presidential elections, regardless of whether Putin goes to them or not, can be held in an atmosphere of political crisis, which will affect not only the course of the elections, but also their outcome. It should also not be forgotten that elections are only part of the political process and that apart from them there are other ways to resolve political crises and come to power. I regard what is happening in Russia as the initial phase of a political crisis. It will last a couple of years and may lead to the most serious political changes in the country.

- The truckers' strike and rallies on March 26 across the country, a rally against renovation in Moscow were distinguished by such an innovation as slogans about the resignation of not only the government, but also the president. On the other hand, polls by the same Levada Center show that although about half of the respondents believe that a citizen has the right to defend his interests even against the interests of the state - and almost 40% support rallies against corruption - less than 20% are ready to "be active" personally. Are you sure that the protest actions can become wider, mass and political before the presidential elections?

- We are talking about local processes, as, for example, in Yekaterinburg - the conflict over the construction of the Temple-on-the-Water, in St. Petersburg - with Isaac, in Moscow - with renovation. All these protests, though non-political in nature, are projected into politics. I can say for sure that the Kremlin is very afraid of the politicization of these protests due to the fact that their participants are increasingly putting forward political slogans, which means that these local protests can merge into a national protest and a coalition against the authorities will arise.

I believe the Kremlin's fears are well founded. It seems to me that in the autumn the protest may develop into something larger and less controlled.

“It is clear that today the authorities are trying not to play with fire, they are acting against the opposition, keeping a balance, on the edge, but not overstepping it. But how are the authorities likely to react if the protest intensifies? Likewise, targeted arrests of activists like Vyacheslav Maltsev and Dmitry Demushkin, increasing control over social networks and the media? Or is a radical “Erdogan option” possible?

- Russia is a country where you can try it. But as soon as you try it, you will realize that the threads of the rusty nuts have been stripped, and the whole structure will begin to crumble. It is very dangerous to resort to excessive pressure in Russia now. Since the reaction of society may be unpredictable, for example, it will show strong resistance. And the authorities seem to feel it.

And you also need to take into account that the authorities cannot be sure of the loyalty of the police and the National Guard. The police are the same citizens as we are, experiencing the same social and material problems, difficulties and hardships. Pay attention: what has the ombudsman for human rights recently attended to? Increasing the salaries of the police!

There is a sense that the police are covertly disloyal. As far as we know, following the results of March 26, the Moscow policemen organized a “debriefing”, where one of the leaders of the Moscow police shouted at his subordinates, accusing them of taking off and not wanting to work. This does not mean that the police will openly oppose the authorities. For Russia, the favorite method of protest is sabotage. And if the police start to sabotage orders, it is very dangerous for the system.

Vladimir Fedorenko/RIA Novosti

- But on the other hand, the police detained participants in the rallies on March 26, using violence, the detainees complained about threats. In Birobidzhan, the National Guard attacked workers. After March 26, the police were supported by Volodin and Fedotov (HRC), and United Russia members in the State Duma even offered to allow them to shoot at the crowd. The verdict against Yuri Kuliy is also a clear nod to the police. It seems that the security forces are being prepared for the "Erdogan option" in which case, and they, in general, are not averse.

— It depends on the region. The further you are from information flows, the easier it is for you to resort to violence. It depends on the scale. It's one thing when you isolate a few dozen people, it's another thing when you encounter a crowd of 50-70 thousand, and suddenly it starts to behave violently. I don’t say “aggressively”, but harshly, for example, to protect those whom the police snatch out of the crowd and drag into a paddy wagon.

— Matviyenko urged to correct "Dadin's article", to analyze the validity of the tariffs in the "Platon" system and in general "not to hide one's head under the wing". After the rallies on March 26, the leaders of the parliamentary opposition demanded the release of schoolchildren and students, an investigation into the facts set forth in the FBK film “He is not Dimon to you”, and cases of the use of force by the police against the protesters. United Russia Revenko stated in the State Duma that attacks, arson and spraying green paint are not means of political struggle, but a crime, a violation of the Constitution. How influential are these "humanist" forces?

“There is no question of any humanism. This is nothing more than a manifestation of common sense, which the Russian elite is not deprived of. But this will not affect politics in general. The policy will remain the same as it has the same group of beneficiaries. This is their way of maintaining their position. They are afraid of any change and want to maintain the status quo. There is such a universal rule: as soon as you begin to demonstrate softness, this increases the ambitions of the opposition. Therefore, we will not see anything like this.

“Despite the active application of Article 282 against “incitement of hatred,” an obvious split is still ripe in our society: some support Navalny, others call his supporters “liberal fascists” and “traitors; some defend Isaac from the Russian Orthodox Church - others advocate the transfer of the cathedral to the Church; in post-industrial cities, gays are treated with tolerance or indifference - they are taken out of archaic Chechnya because of the threat of persecution, or even murder, and so on. At the same time, according to the Russian Guard, 4.5 million Russians have 7.5 million weapons in their hands. And what if this weapon (not only brilliant green) will be used in the confrontation between the Russians against each other or against the authorities?

“First of all, Article 282 is insane. Such an article should not be in the Criminal Code. Secondly, in Russia, despite the high level of neuroticism and psychopathization, we nevertheless do not cling to each other's throats. And thirdly, the authorities are most afraid that possible aggression is not being implemented against each other, but will find a common vector and be directed against the authorities.

And the most important thing is the fourth: in order to get rid of this tension, society needs to be offered a future. The government is currently unable to do this. Society needs a social and historical perspective. And the government tells him, firstly, about the past: our grandfathers won on May 9! And this is the main source of legitimization of power along with Crimea. And secondly, she says: if you protest, it will become like in Ukraine. So, appeals to the past and to Ukraine no longer work.

People want to have a future that the authorities are not able to offer them. And this applies not only to society, but to the elite too.

The elite lacks an understanding of the goals and objectives of the country, which causes them confusion and disorientation.

Press Service of the President of the Russian Federation

Is a civil war still possible? Or is it an exaggeration?

- This is a horror story that the government successfully uses for propaganda purposes. Even with a high level of conflict in society, a civil war is absolutely out of the question. There may be some individual excesses, but not a civil war. There are no fundamental factors for it.

“We are in the same position as at the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union”

- A few questions for you as a teacher. hallmark rallies on March 26 was the participation of schoolchildren and students. Suffice it to say that 7% of the detainees are minors. Recently, a Tomsk schoolboy recorded a video message to Medvedev demanding a direct response to accusations of corruption and resignation. And in Kaluga, high school students held a rally against corruption in education. Should minors be allowed to participate in political actions, especially since they often end in violence?

- Can we prevent minors from participating in these actions? Honestly, no. I can judge by my 15 year old son. If you start putting pressure on them, then they are more likely to go to these protest actions out of a sense of protest against the pressure. And for me personally, in this case, the choice will disappear: as a normal father, I will have to go with my son. I think many parents will do just that.

It is important to understand that the performance of the youth is actually a reflection of the conversations they hear from the elders. This is the political socialization they go through at home. Only their parents only talk about it, and the children, due to their high energy and heightened sense of justice, take to the streets. This children's protest is associated with a change in mass sentiment. Children shine with the reflected light of their parents. Therefore, it makes no sense to separate teenage protest from the general state of society.

Jaromir Romanov/website

- A HSE study shows that at least 66% of students call corruption the main scourge of the country and do not trust the entire "vertical of power" - from the government to local officials and policemen, 47% will vote for Putin, only 7% for Navalny, and they are ready to participate in protests only 14%. Is it really possible to talk about the coming “revolution of kibalchish boys”, with whom it is not even clear how to fight?

- Firstly, Putin, even with the likely overestimation of his rating, remains the most popular politician in Russia. Secondly, Navalny is far from the most recognizable politician in Russia. Thirdly, I doubt that students in surveys are telling the truth. I assume that many of them, like adults, are cunning. And fourthly, as I have already said, there are ways out of the crisis when the ratio of the majority and the minority does not matter. Then something else matters.

What is important is not “who do you intend to vote for”, but “are you ready to go to the square at the appointed time”.

- The Minister of Education Vasilyeva said that it is necessary to work with the "protest" youth. Examples of teachers who crucified schoolchildren and students for sympathizing with Navalny, threatening them (here, for some reason, the Vladimir region especially excelled), the position of the Ministry of Education and Science, which justified the screening of a film about Navalny, where he was compared to Hitler, at Vladimir State University - indicate that teachers have forgotten how to talk with students that there is a generational value gap between them. How, in your teaching opinion, is it necessary to “work” with young people and will our education system succeed?

- I can say for sure that the current education system does not work with these young people. All talk about politics on the part of teachers is meaningless, they are rejected by schoolchildren and lead to directly opposite results. Therefore, I think they will try to resort to a system of administrative pressure and control.

Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev on when and how Russia can build democracy

And if the Minister of Education really wants to influence schoolchildren, then here it is necessary to work not with children, but with parents, trying to convince them that the participation of children in political processes threatens their health and prospects. In some cases this may work, but only in some. It would be better if representatives of the education system were generally silent, so at least they did not draw attention to what was happening.

- In your opinion, are today's youth generally interested in politics? Do they want to become politicians or political analysts, political scientists, political strategists? Or is it just youthful maximalism, behind which the prospect of professional participation in politics is not visible?

- Teenage rebellion is associated with a keen awareness of injustice. Children feel that neither the country nor they personally have a future. And for them this situation is intolerable. If, say, our generation has already adapted to what is happening, preferring to endure and maneuver, then they begin to protest. This means that for them politics is more of a situational phenomenon. They do not see other channels for the realization of their ambitions and aspirations.

Website of Alexei Navalny

If an image of the future appears, then politics, as always, will remain the lot of a minority. This is 3-5% of all youth. Now we see that interest in politics has grown. And until the causes of protest disappear, young people will be involved in politics.

- And specifically, political science, the study of politics are interesting for young people?

— Of course, there is a small percentage who are interested in political science. But when you get acquainted with how politics works in Russia, you understand that you are not in a position to influence it. You need to change the framework of politics, and for this it is not at all necessary to have a political science education. To do this, you need to have other qualities. Therefore, political science is devalued. If there is virtually no competition policy in Russia, then political science, which is built on Western political science principles and models, loses its significance. It turns out art for the sake of art, research for the sake of research, theory for the sake of theories.

— That is, you would not advise your son, nephews and other young people you know to get involved with political science as, in fact, a discipline of little use and divorced from practice?

“This is not the path to practical politics. This is just an interesting intellectual exercise that has nothing to do with real politics. And I can say that the majority of academic political scientists (although by no means all) do not understand what is happening in Russia at all. They are not even able to analyze the current policy, let alone offer any advice, consultations, solutions.

- And the last thing, Valery Dmitrievich. With what period of history can we compare the moment we are in?

- It is definitely not worth comparing with 1917. The best analogy is with 1989-1991 when the crash started Soviet Union. The common thing in the then and today is the dysfunctionality of the system. She ceased to satisfy the needs of the majority. The control apparatus is ineffective. Political revival can turn into a political crisis. The economy is largely similar in terms of dependence on oil. In foreign policy, there is again an aggravation with the West. Then we had Afghanistan, now we have Syria and Donbass. Navalny found himself in the role of the then Yeltsin: everything that the authorities do against him only turns to his advantage.

Naturally, any analogy is conditional. But I would say that we are in the same position as then. However, I do not believe in the collapse of the country. But a radical change of policy seems to me likely. And, as then, everything can happen quickly and unexpectedly.

Russian political scientist - about Ulyukaev's hope, Kadyrov's pacification and Putin's pause

For some six months, the main memes on the Russian political agenda have become “request for change” and “image of the future”, which were well known before only to readers of the Zavtra newspaper. The well-known historian, political scientist and publicist Valery Solovey spoke in an interview with Realnoe Vremya about what fills these memes with content, namely about the growing political activity of citizens, the confusion of the elites, and the hidden function of Ramzan Kadyrov.

Appeals from the regions were left to chance: react as you wish

Valery Dmitrievich, you recently wrote on your Twitter that the situation in the country is being shaken up not by a conspiracy, but by “stupidity and methodologists.” Apparently, they meant the "Shchedrovites" and their main public representative Sergei Kiriyenko? What exactly were the mistakes made by the presidential administration under him?

Yes, they meant advisers close to Kiriyenko from the group of “methodologists”. According to the general opinion (by the general opinion I mean the opinion of Moscow political experts and people close to the administration of the President of the Russian Federation), they failed to determine the correct political line of conduct and made a number of missteps. Associated, for example, with the reaction to the events of March 26 and June 12 and, in general, the reaction to the Navalny phenomenon. Do you remember, say, a video in which Navalny is compared to Hitler, or a song by Alice Vox, in which an appeal is made to schoolchildren not to go to rallies, but “start with yourself”. It is clear that the legs in this case grew out of the administration. And all this worked to the benefit of Alexei Anatolyevich. I'm not talking about more serious things, when requests from the regions with a request to suggest how they should react to Navalny's upcoming actions were actually left to chance: react as you wish. This is despite the fact that the vast majority Russian regions(Tatarstan is an exception in this case) needs an understanding of the Kremlin's position and clear instructions.

This is one part of the problem. The second is that people who are tightly integrated into the presidential administration are less and less appreciative of its ability to solve problems that confront the country and specifically the Kremlin. And there is some contradiction here, because personally they rate Sergei Kiriyenko quite highly. But at the same time, they note that, at least until the summer of this year, he was not able to establish an effective work of the administration. Perhaps this was due to internal opposition. Not everything was fine there, he had conflicts with other prominent apparatchiks. Either he took a long time to get used to, or the point is that when he agreed to go into administration, there was one situation in the country, and now, starting from the early spring of this year, there has been a political revival. That is, a different situation has developed, and it was still necessary to comprehend it, understand what was happening, and propose how to deal with it.

"It was an 'offer you can't refuse', but Kiriyenko was probably promised a reward if he did his job effectively, that is, successfully ran the presidential campaign." Photo kremlin.ru

- So, Kiriyenko was invited to this position? Didn't he really want her?

It was "an offer you can't refuse," but Kiriyenko was probably promised a reward if he did his job effectively, that is, successfully ran the presidential campaign. What kind of reward, I do not know, but you can guess that we are talking about a post in the government. Maybe about the position of the head of the cabinet. Indeed, for the head of Rosatom, the transition to the position of deputy head of the presidential administration is a loss of status, independence and a significant complication of life.

The elite is accumulating tension, discontent and fear

The trial of the former Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukaev has begun, in which the defendant has already accused the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, of provoking a bribe. What else do you think we can hear about this trial?

In fact, we haven't heard anything interesting yet. For political Moscow, Ulyukaev's statement is no secret - this scenario was discussed long before the trial. More precisely, not a script, but the background of events.

And I think that nothing else awaits us. Ulyukaev, of course, will not reveal any Kremlin secrets, because for him this is fraught with a worsening of the situation. I think he still hopes that his article will be reclassified to a less serious one, and he will receive a suspended sentence. Or it will be released under the planned amnesty on the occasion of the centenary of the October Revolution. But the fact that there will be no acquittal is absolutely certain.

- It will be a great irony of fate if it comes out on the occasion of the centenary of October.

Well, in Russia everything is already permeated not even with irony, but with the grotesque. Look at the story of Poklonskaya - it's something Kafkaesque. Or rather, Gogol, Saltykov-Shchedrin.

“I think that nothing else awaits us. Ulyukayev, of course, will not reveal any Kremlin secrets, because for him this is fraught with a worsening of the situation. Photo iz.ru

How would you comment on Aleksey Venediktov's suggestion that Sergey Chemezov is behind Ulyukaev's statement?

Yes, anyone can stand. In general, Alexei Alekseevich has a sound idea. Chemezov and Sechin are opponents. And if they are opponents, then Chemezov, as an influential person, can somehow support Ulyukaev so that life does not seem like honey to Igor Ivanovich. But even if Chemezov is behind Ulyukaev's statement, this does not mean that the verdict will be acquittal. The prosecution will get its way, there is no doubt about it. Ulyukaev will definitely not be able to leave the courtroom with a clean, unsullied reputation. It is quite possible to write over the Russian court, as over Dante's hell: "Abandon hope, everyone who enters here." This is just such a hopeless place.

All the fuss will be around what exactly Ulyukaev will receive - imprisonment, a suspended sentence or an amnesty.

That is, about some tectonic shifts, about the "split of the elites", as Dmitry Gudkov suggested, this court does not tell us?

There is no split. A split in the elites is when different groups of the elite see differently how to build a strategy for the development of the country and society, and not when they fight for resources. A split in the Russian elite will arise in one single case - when very powerful pressure will be exerted on the central government from below in the form of popular demonstrations. That's when the elite will have doubts about its political future and there will be different variants this future.

- Can foreign political pressure split it?

No, he can not. It can cause - and is already causing - growing tension. But this does not mean that any of them, let alone any group, will dare to openly oppose Putin if he decides to go to the polls. This is absolutely out of the question.

So far, quantitative rather than qualitative changes are taking place in the Russian elite. There is an accumulation of tension, discontent and fear. The latter is caused by the clause in the US sanctions law, which involves investigating the connections of parastatal structures of oligarchs with the Kremlin. And there, not only the oligarchs themselves, but also members of their families fall under the law. This is what they are very afraid of. But these are moods, emotions. There are no actions.

“It does two things. The first is to maintain stability in Chechnya and maintain stability in the North Caucasus. He is the personal guarantor of stability in this region. And the second is to act as a support for the regime in the event of mass unrest.” Photo kremlin.ru

“We will face many local protests that will gradually merge into a nationwide one”

- What role does Ramzan Kadyrov play in the Russian elite, who is already there was a lot, and recently it has become even more?

It performs two functions. First, maintain stability in Chechnya and maintain stability in the North Caucasus. He is the personal guarantor of stability in this region. And the second is to act as a support for the regime in the event of mass unrest.

- Unrest in Moscow, you mean?

If the unrest begins, they are likely to take on a nationwide character. That is, they can cover several cities.

When he, say, talks about his key role in the "Crimean Spring" (as it is claimed in social networks), is this agreed with the Kremlin?

Unlikely. He considers himself a strong independent figure. Kadyrov is by far the most powerful regional leader in the Russian Federation, far more powerful than anyone else. Accordingly, he allows himself what no one, including major federal figures, can afford.

What is the reason for the statement of the head of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov that the request for stability in Russian society replaced by a request for change? Especially in light of the fact that Fedorov considers this phase dangerous, I quote: "Revolutionary moods appear not in a situation of crisis, but when the crisis is over."

The very request for change after a twenty-year, if not more, request for stability is a very serious, almost tectonic shift. But what consequences it will lead to, we will find out not immediately, but within two to three years. Because it is not enough to change people's minds - it is much more important that their political behavior change. We have signs of such political novelty - this is the participation of people in unauthorized actions, and the phenomenon of Navalny. This is what Gleb Pavlovsky called politicization.

“It is not enough to change people's minds - it is much more important that their political behavior change. We have signs of such political novelty - this is the participation of people in unauthorized actions, and the phenomenon of Navalny. Photo by Oleg Tikhonov

Only we must be aware that the mass dynamics is absolutely and fundamentally unpredictable. We do not know how political activity will develop. I am inclined to believe that it will go on increasing, that is, we will face many local protests that will gradually merge into a nationwide one. And I do not rule out that the beginning of this will be laid next fall.

And the political crisis itself, if we enter into it, and it seems that we are slowly drawn into it, will last at least two years, more likely even three years. But this is still under a big question mark. Because a change in behavior does not automatically follow from a change in the mood of citizens.

Perhaps the very appearance of such a statement from the head of a pro-government sociological structure suggests that the authorities themselves are trying to ride this wave?

No, the authorities are trying to protect themselves from it. She just understands that this is a threat. Saddle - how is it?

- Lead the renovation process yourself.

This could have been done if new person with a fundamentally new national agenda. Which would offer an image of the future. Or if Putin suggested it. That is, if we saw the new Putin. Practically it is impossible, but theoretically it cannot be ruled out.

That is, do you think that Putin will still go to the polls, but will arm himself with some kind of vague agenda?

You know, we'll know for sure whether he goes or not, not until October. Until now, there are doubts, albeit microscopic ones. Although everything he does is very reminiscent of an election campaign. However, until he personally announces that he is going to the polls, doubts will persist.

“You know, we will know for sure whether he will go or not, not earlier than October. Until now, there are doubts, albeit microscopic ones. Although everything he does is very reminiscent of an election campaign.” Photo kremlin.ru

In the meantime, he says: “I think. I have not decided yet". Maybe he did, but he hides it. Or maybe he didn't really decide. I can only say that this pause causes some confusion among the political elite. She would have preferred certainty, and the sooner the better.

"Then why do you think he won't announce it before October?"

It's not my opinion, it's what they think, as far as is known, in the inner circle. But again, these are all rumors. He did not announce this during the "straight line". They say that in October it will become clear that Putin has promised to introduce it. Or maybe he will bring it in November.

Ending to be

Rustem Shakirov

https://www.site/2016-03-25/politolog_valeriy_solovey_my_pered_ochen_sereznymi_politicheskimi_peremenami

“After the elections, serious restrictions will be imposed on the exit of citizens from the country”

Political scientist Valery Solovey: we are in front of very serious political changes

Historian, political analyst, publicist Valery Solovey published new book- An absolute weapon. Fundamentals of psychological warfare and media manipulation. Why do Russians lend themselves so easily to propaganda and how to “decode” them? Based on this, how will domestic political processes develop in the near future? What is the likely outcome of the election? Will our ties with the outside world change?

“In the manipulation of consciousness, Western democracies, Nazis and Soviets went the same way”

— Valery Dmitrievich, readers are wondering why you wrote another book on a question that has already been considered by dozens of other authors? For example, at one time the book by Sergei Kara-Murza "Manipulation of Consciousness" was popular. What mistakes and shortcomings do you see in it?

— In Russia, there is not a single worthy book that would talk about propaganda and media manipulation. Not a single one - I emphasize! The well-known book by Kara-Murza became so popular only because it was the first in Russia on this topic. But in its methodological basis and content, it is frankly mediocre. Further, my book, for the first time in the literature, connects cognitive psychology with long-known stories about the methods, techniques and techniques of propaganda. So far, there has been no such analysis and generalization in the literature on this topic. Meanwhile, cognitivist psychology is extremely important because it explains why people are susceptible to propaganda and why propaganda is inevitable. As long as there is humanity, there will be propaganda. And, finally, it must be said that I covered the topic of propaganda with actual examples that are well understood by readers. The result was a book that was even noted by the leaders of the Russian propaganda machine. As my friends told me, they said about her: "The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic." True, they added: “But it would be better if such a book did not come out at all.” I think this is a very high rating. In addition, the first edition was sold out in three weeks. Now the second one is coming out. Here is my answer to why I wrote this book.

Valery Solovey: “The first thing they pay attention to is hair. If a person is bald - on the eyes. A man needs to make sure he has good teeth and shoes.” from the personal archive of Valery Solovyov

- You once said that the concept of the Overton Window, which came from the West, revealing the secret mechanisms of the loosening of social norms, is nothing more than a pseudo-theory. Why?

“The Overton Window is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiratorial in nature: they say, there is a group of people who are planning a decades-long strategy to corrupt society. Never and nowhere in history has there been anything like it and cannot be, due to the imperfection of human nature. I suggest that a person who adheres to the concept of the Overton Window plan his life for at least a month and live according to his plan. Let's see what happens. Love for this kind of conspiracy is characteristic of those who are not even able to manage their own lives, let alone manage anything at all.

- In our country, the Overton Window is remembered when they point to problems with morality. Patriarch Kirill said so: "Pedophilia will be legalized for homosexuality."

- All changes in the history of mankind occur spontaneously. This does not mean that there is certainly some kind of conspiracy behind them and the legalization of homosexual marriages in some European countries will certainly lead to the legalization of pedophilia. In addition, in one case we are talking about adults who do something voluntarily, and in the other about minors who have parents, and the legalization of pedophilia is possible only through violation of human rights and violence. Therefore, yes, what was an anti-norm 100-200 years ago suddenly becomes acceptable today. But this is a natural process, there is no need to see here the “hairy paw of the Antichrist”, who came into this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else.

At the same time, I want to say that in the same way, in a natural way, a reaction can occur. I do not at all rule out the possibility that European society may swing back towards conservative values. And not because a group of conspirators or agents of the Kremlin in Europe will be operating somewhere, but simply because the society decides enough is enough, they have played enough, you need to think about self-preservation.

“The leaders of the Russian propaganda machine said: “The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic. But it would be better if it did not come out””pycode.ru

- Speaking of the manipulation of consciousness in our country, from what historical period can they be counted? Since the time of the Bolsheviks or even earlier?

- If we talk about manipulation in general, then from the moment people learned to speak. But if we are talking about mass manipulation, then from the moment the channels of mass communication appeared. The starting point of mass deception can be considered the emergence of the media. This, of course, newspapers, radio, television. And in this sense, all more or less developed countries followed the same path, that Western democracies - the USA, Great Britain, and so on, that Nazi Germany, that Soviet Russia. Propaganda occurs in all countries without exception.

Another thing is the quality of propaganda, sophistication, the presence of pluralism. In the same USA, there are media holdings owned by various independent owners. Therefore, different propaganda campaigns balance each other and during the electoral "marathons" citizens have the freedom of choice. Well, or the illusion of freedom of choice. That is, where there is pluralism, propaganda is always more subtle and sophisticated.

— In one of your interviews, you said that the BBC is one of the most objective English-speaking television companies. Do you still think so?

— This company confirms such a reputation with its many years of work. All TV companies allow blunders, they are all dependent in one way or another, but the BBC suffers from this least of all.

“Russia managed to create the best propaganda machine”

- And our propaganda is more advanced and stupid?

“I wouldn't say so. Russia has managed to create, by far, the best propaganda machine. But it is focused exclusively on its own population, since propaganda outside was not very successful. At least in the European area. Our propaganda is carried out by very professional people. These people, in particular, learned from the information failure of the summer of 2008. Remember the war for South Ossetia, which Russia won militarily but, by all accounts, lost in terms of information and propaganda? Since 2014, we have seen that the propaganda errors of 2008 are no longer there.

But we must understand that any propaganda has its limits. Russian propaganda hit its limits at the turn of 2015-16. And we will gradually observe its extinction. Or, as they often say today, the refrigerator will gradually begin to win over the TV. I think that at the turn of 2016-17, its strength will weaken quite seriously.

- Today's diligent resuscitation of the cult of Stalin, for example, casts doubts ...

“You don't have to fight it. This will collapse on its own once the regime is weakened. Stalin in the current realities is nothing more than a propaganda symbol that has no real content and materializing power under it. Those who call on us to return Stalin believe that he should return only for their neighbors, but not for themselves. When it comes to selfish interests, none of these screaming Stalinists is ready to sacrifice anything. So the cult of Stalin is a fiction. It's just that the authorities are exploiting the era of Stalin in order to legitimize some of their repressive measures. But not more. There is a rule of complex social systems. It says that a return to the past, whoever wants it, is impossible.

RIA Novosti / Evgeny Biyatov

- But to Stalin, as if bewitched, with flowers go "both old and young." Can you tell us about the methods of decoding personal and social consciousness?

- Turn on common sense, judge people by their deeds, read more, do not watch TV at all, or no more than 20 minutes a day. If you are called to vote for a party that promised something 5-10 years ago and has not done anything by the current date, do not vote for it in any case. The deeds speak for themselves.

- And then, in the future, it is necessary to lustrate the employees of the propaganda media? What they do - crimes? Do they have to be held accountable?

- It is known that the Nuremberg Trials equated propaganda with a crime against humanity. Therefore, in a sense, this question can be answered in the affirmative. As for lustration, I do not rule it out, but it is too early to say who will be affected.

“The masses will come out, but this will not lead to civil war and the collapse of the state”

- This year, for the first time in a long time, the elections of half of the State Duma will be held in single-member districts. Can we expect that the pre-election campaign will become more diverse, and new faces will come to the Duma, enliven it, make it a "place for discussion"?

- Despite the fact that they returned single-member constituencies, I think that all the same, the most dangerous for the safety of the regime will simply not be allowed to participate in the elections. Even at the stage of registration, candidates go through a "sieve" that allows you to weed out those who are disloyal to the regime. And even if some of the undesirables are admitted to the elections, they will experience the most severe pressure and generally regret that they went. The elections will give the impression of competition, but not the competition itself, the message will be the same for everyone, just the style is different. Therefore, the Duma itself as a whole will retain its decorative character.

RIA Novosti/Alexander Utkin

- Do you see in the country, in principle, any real opposition to the regime, capable of leading the people?

There is an opposition in Russia that the regime allows to exist. Because any real opposition to them is destroyed in the literal and figurative sense. But even the weak opposition is afraid of the regime.

- In this case, the reader asks, how do you, a specialist in media manipulation, assess the chances of Putin's leadership to formalize and legitimize in the eyes of the population the transformation of Russia into a semi-closed, anti-democratic autocracy similar to the countries of Central Asia?

- Indeed, today the ruling group in Russia is concerned with the question of how to maintain its dominance until 2035-40. At least, I have heard arguments on this subject from people close to the so-called "elite". But I believe that in the next couple of years we will see the limit of the possibilities of this mode. I agree that its representatives will try to legitimize their power. But, one way or another, they will soon run out of opportunities for this.

— And what about “physical” measures, such as closing borders?

- After the elections to the State Duma this year, serious restrictions will most likely be introduced on the exit of Russian citizens from the country.

Do you mean the law on exit visas?

- No, it's unlikely. Unspoken recommendations will be given to officials at all levels and their families not to leave the country. And if the officials are so seriously infringed, they will not tolerate any part of society remaining free in the country. In Russia, if serfdom is introduced, it applies to all classes. This is a historical tradition. According to my information, a tourist tax will be introduced, which will cut off the opportunity for many categories of citizens to travel abroad.

fastpic.ru

- Will this be a factor that, on the contrary, will bring the collapse of the regime closer? After all, this step will affect not only the "creakles", but also the townsfolk, who used to allow themselves to rest in decent hotels in Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Tunisia and so on for relatively little money.

— You are right, regimes are not collapsing because of opposition and external enemies. They collapse because of the stupidity of the managers. And sooner or later these stupidities begin to acquire a malignant character. If you look at the history of fallen regimes, you get the impression that those who ruled them, as if deliberately led the matter to collapse. In general, regarding any political processes in Russia, there is an axiom that the dynamics of the masses is unpredictable. And you can never know in advance what seemingly insignificant things can lead to major political shifts.

- Another reader's question is appropriate here: “What scenario is the most possible in Russia? The first is that Shoigu (or another conservative) becomes president, punitive and protective measures are tightened, that is, the transition to the USSR No. 2. The second is the Libyan scenario. The third is the Rose Revolution scenario. Fourth, peaceful evolution towards European democracy. Or the fifth, the collapse of the Russian Federation into many small states as a result of the current colonial pseudo-federal system?”

- What I definitely do not expect is the collapse of Russia. When they say this to me, I clearly understand that this is pure trade in fear. I believe that Russia is facing very serious political changes. They will happen in the not so distant medium term and will change our political landscape beyond recognition. These changes will be predominantly peaceful. And then we will move not very clear where. This will depend on the outcome of the changes.

- In the early 1990s, the masses also quite peacefully took to the streets and said: "We can't live like this anymore."

Yes, they will come out. And not for political reasons, but for socio-economic ones. I think that this is very likely, especially in large cities. But this will not lead to civil war or to the collapse of the state. I do not believe in this.

RIA Novosti/Alexey Danichev

“But when the protest is peaceful, it is easy to suppress it. No wonder a person asks you a question about Shoigu and the tightening of punitive and protective measures.

- The authorities are constantly moving in this direction, but do not exaggerate the loyalty of the repressive apparatus. She is not at all what she seems. In a critical situation, they simply can not follow the order and step back.

- Not the collapse of the country, but the disappearance of some regions, for example, the North Caucasus - is this possible?

— I don't think these republics want to leave Russia. In fact, they are good at it. Where should they go? Without it, they won't survive at all. Therefore, they will bargain, trying to impose their conditions. But as a result of political changes, I think Moscow's policy towards these republics will become more balanced and meaningful. Personally, I don't think it's right to pay huge sums of money for political loyalty. It's corrupting. Yes, and already corrupted.

“Our politicians use neo-Eurasianism and religion as long as it suits them”

- Do we still have sane nationalist, or rather national-democratic forces after the Ukrainian events?

- As for organized nationalism, it drags out a miserable existence. He is not allowed to raise his head, many leaders, like Belov, are behind bars. Others, like Demushkin, understand that if they are active, they will follow Belov. But as for nationalism in general as a kind of public mood, it certainly exists. And these sentiments will soon be politically in demand.

Are you going to revive your national-democratic New Force party when times are more favorable for public politics?

- It is frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with reprisals. But in general, I believe that both today and in the future the party format is unpromising. I think that other formats will be in demand.

RIA Novosti/Yuri Ivanov

- What are the prospects for the coming to power of members of the "January 25 Committee" Igor Strelkov and other "Novorossov"?

- This organization has different people: both nationalists, and Soviet "imperials", and Orthodox monarchists. I do not see that this organization has any prospects. But some, some of its leaders, have. And I do not rule out that 2-3 of them will be able to play a role in the coming political changes that we talked about above.

- In general, do Russians have a chance to organize themselves following the example of Israel or Japan, that is, to create a national state? This is a question from one of our readers.

- Of course, there is such a chance, because the Russians feel like a single people. It is Russians, not Russians. So Russia is in fact, in fact, a nation state, it remains only to formalize the superstructure - the laws - in accordance with this reality and change the policy so that it coincides with the interests of the national majority.

Do you think Russians have a national identity these days?

— Yes, it exists, it manifests itself in everyday life. It's just that Russians are afraid to talk about it out loud. At least two-thirds of Russians feel their national consciousness. Just do not confuse real Russians and "literary" - national costumes, cuisine, tools, something else. It's just lubok. The nation-state is a modern state, not an archaism.

“Moscow's policy towards these republics will become more balanced. Paying huge amounts of money for political loyalty is wrong.” RIA Novosti/Said Tsarnaev

— The overwhelming majority of today's "Russian nationalists" are Orthodox activists and are convinced that the Russian national state must stand on the foundation of Orthodoxy, there is no way without it. Personally, this format of the nation-state is unpleasant to me. A multinational and cosmopolitan society is better, but secular and with freedom of worldview, including religious, choice.

- Your response is appropriate. But, firstly, if you are afraid, then it is better not to do anything at all, not even to leave the house. There is always a risk when doing something. And, secondly, the results of this process will depend on those who are at the head of it. Because there is a general sociological pattern: those at the bottom copy those at the top. And if the elite sets itself clear goals that are understandable and beneficial to the national majority, nothing terrible will happen.

Let's say you say: we want to provide affordable housing to the national majority in order to reverse the demographic situation. The bottoms answer: “Great! We want!” This is what the nation state is. But if someone, instead of clear and understandable goals, uses myths like “Stalinism” and says that it is in it that the primordially Russian character and behavior of those in power are concentrated, then this is no longer a national state. This is completely different.

- And the “neo-Eurasianism”, which dominates the semi-official ideology of the ruling group, is this serious? What do you think - do they really believe in it or use it, like the same notorious "Stalinism"?

- To believe or not to believe - such a question in politics is not worth it. They find it convenient. It gives some ideological justification for what they do. They use it as long as it suits them. And religion, by the way, too. And if suddenly the weather vane of moods in society swings in the other direction, they will become Russian nationalists or even Muslims. Therefore, do not focus too much on this issue.

“Russia made no effort to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence”

— Since we mentioned neo-Eurasianism, let's finish our conversation with a series of questions about Ukraine: it is, perhaps, the main victim of the ideology of "neo-Eurasianism", or "Russian world".

One of our readers recalls that Brzezinski is credited with saying: "Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire; with Ukraine, Russia automatically turns into an empire." That is, I would like to know your opinion: is the “shaggy paw of American imperialism” visible in the break in relations between Russia and Ukraine?

— I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It began not two years ago, but in the early 1990s. And even then, many analysts said that Ukraine would inevitably drift towards the West. Moreover, Russia did not make any special efforts to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence. Or, at least, did not make the efforts that would be effective. I do not mean the supply of gas at reduced prices, but cultural and intellectual levers of influence. They were not used, and no one cared about that. So, I repeat, this is quite a natural process.

And after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the war in the Donbass, the point of no return has been passed. Now Ukraine will definitely never be a fraternal state with Russia. At the same time, I do not think that the West will accept Ukraine either. Most likely, she will drag out a poor existence. But this does not mean that she will come to bow to Moscow. Anti-Moscow and anti-Russian sentiments will henceforth be the cornerstone for the formation of the national self-consciousness of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed.

RIA Novosti/Andrey Stenin

“So Russia will never be an empire again?”

Well, this was understandable even in the 1990s, and not only in connection with Brzezinski's geopolitical views. And now we are at the point of post-Soviet existence. Rather, we are stuck there and do not develop anywhere. True, this inertia has already exhausted itself. Therefore political changes are inevitable.

- Is there an opportunity in the future to compromise on the “Crimean issue” in order to get rid of the sanctions?

“I think there is a chance to freeze this problem and ensure the de facto recognition of Crimea. As for the Crimean Tatars, there are not very many of them. And they can be offered such a formula, on the basis of which they would understand that it is better to live in the world. If they realize that there is no other alternative for them, then they will reconcile. This is quite enough. De jure recognition of Crimea as Russian territory depends on the position of Ukraine. If we talk about sanctions against Russia, then there are those imposed for Crimea, and there are those for Donbass. And these are different sanctions. And the sanctions for Crimea are far from being the most sensitive.

- What, in your opinion, awaits Ukraine in general and Donbass in particular?

— The fate of Ukraine depends on the quality of its elite. If an elite appears there, capable of leading the country onto new tracks of development, then everything will be fine with it. I don't think it will break up or become a federation. But, one way or another, he will remain the "sick man of Europe."

The fate of Donbass is terrible. In any situation, he is doomed to be a kind of "black hole" on the geopolitical map. Most likely, it will turn out to be a peaceful territory, but de facto not part of Ukraine, nor part of Russia. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline will reign - a kind of European Somalia. There is no point in modernizing something there, because no one really needs the Donbass. For Ukraine and for Russia, this is a stone on their feet. But people get used to everything. I have friends and relatives who live there, have already adapted to this lifestyle and do not want to leave.

RIA Novosti/Dan Levy

Reference

Valery Solovey was born in 1960. After graduating from the Faculty of History of Moscow State University, he worked at the Academy of Sciences, the Gorbachev Foundation. He completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Doctor of Historical Sciences (dissertation topic - "The Russian Question" and its influence on the domestic and foreign policy of Russia). Currently, he is a professor at MGIMO, head of the department of public relations, author of a course of lectures on the manipulation of public consciousness.

Valery Solovey, a well-known political scientist, doctor of historical sciences, MGIMO professor, makes predictions about the financial and political “weather” that come true too often for these predictions to be neglected. There are not legends about Nightingale's awareness, but political anecdotes (the very ones in which there is only a fraction of a joke). The political scientist himself is slightly ironic about the fame of the predictor: “Friends from the administration called to congratulate me. They were asked to continue to keep them informed of what is happening in the country. Reluctantly promised.

In an interview that Valery Solovey shortly after the elections in State Duma The Russian Federation gave the correspondent of Radio Liberty a number of assumptions that deserve careful reading and reflection.

Spring Waters, or On the Eve

It is preceded by a squeeze from earlier forecasts by Valery Solovyi - with an attempt to project them to the present day.

Elections to the Russian parliament are in themselves a significant event for the country. But the reshuffle in the highest echelons of power began weeks before Russians went to the polls. Many of these events (say, the appointment Anton Vaino head of the Presidential Administration, Viacheslav Volodin- Chairman of the State Duma) Nightingale foresaw in early August.

Perhaps there are other predictions of his that are worth taking into account - especially now that the elections have taken place and it is obvious that a large-scale personnel reorganization is beginning at the top. This is what the political scientist was talking about (as a “summary of rumors, leaks and insinuations”).

For the Russian authorities today, the fundamental question still remains unresolved: whether to hold presidential elections in March 2018, as provided for by the procedure, or to postpone them a year earlier; the second question, no less important - who will be the No. 1 candidate?

There are 2-3 candidates for key positions in the state, and it is impossible to say that all appointments from the top have been decided (especially since the situation is changing dynamically). But something can be stated, says Nightingale.

Firstly, the current prime minister can go on promotion - Dmitry Medvedev(there is only one answer to the question “how much higher?” - Ed.). Accordingly, one can make assumptions about who will occupy the vacant premier's chair. According to the political scientist, there is not a single representative of the liberal camp among the candidates (including the candidacy Alexei Kudrin) - all possible candidates either directly represent law enforcement agencies, or are somehow connected with them.

“In order to keep the economy afloat in Russia, let alone to ensure at least some minimal development, it is critically important to remove the sanctions regime, or at least seriously weaken it. But the government that is in Russia now cannot negotiate this with the West, which is well known to everyone in Russia and in the West. Accordingly, we need another government, formally another, which could take the initiative to defuse tensions.”

Nevertheless, no major changes are expected in the financial and economic block - for today it solves its tasks quite successfully.

If, nevertheless, a decision is made in favor of early presidential elections, the question of who will be appointed to the post of first deputy of the Presidential Administration will come to the fore - it is his function to supervise domestic policy in the country. In place of Vyacheslav Volodin, who is leaving for the Duma, according to Valery Solovyi, there are three contenders - Vladislav Surkov, a certain protege of Volodin himself and, again, one of the representatives of the power bloc.

A change of fate, the political scientist predicts, awaits about a dozen governors, primarily those who have recently been in sight, on hearing and this irritates the public; it is possible that the removal from office awaits the head of the Crimea.

Analyzing the past parliamentary elections, Valery Solovey focuses on several key points.

The first is the obvious victory of United Russia and the crushing defeat of the opposition. Moreover, this defeat has a clear moral and psychological color: the opposition cannot offer the Russians either an attractive picture of the future or a worthy idea that could mobilize them. However, those who voted for United Russia”, the political scientist believes, they are not sure about the future - and they are not ready to take risks in the present. This is perhaps the choice of stability, but not development. At the same time, Svoboda cites the words of Nightingale, “The Kremlin knows and understands Russia better.” The authorities received carte blanche, and the opposition, in turn, realized that it would not come to power through elections - "which does not exclude other ways," the publication warns.

And finally, one more prediction: in about a year, a new "window of opportunity" will open for Russia - in connection with which, Solovey informs intriguingly, "the results of yesterday's elections and the parliament elected in them will have absolutely no meaning."

Wait and see

Valery Solovey voiced the following conclusions for the near and long term.

“The idea of ​​early presidential elections has been circulating in the Russian political establishment since the late spring of this year. The economic and social situation is deteriorating, and they know it is deteriorating. Because of this, it would be counterproductive to hold presidential elections in 2018, when the situation will be much worse and the mood of the masses may turn out to be completely different.” the political scientist warned. As for the first person - with a high probability, says Nightingale, “Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will not go to the polls”, and now there is a discussion at the highest level of possible candidates for a replacement (at the moment - 6-8 people). Nightingale did not disclose the names, with the exception of one: according to him, the candidacy of the governor of the Tula region is under consideration Alexandra Dyumin.

“The logic is as follows: the highest authorities have a very clear feeling that something needs to be done. What? It cannot compromise with the West - this would mean, from its point of view, serious reputational damage. It does not want to carry out institutional reforms in the economy. And now she is trying, as it seems to her, to update the system of state administration in order to give momentum to all spheres of life. As Karamzin once wrote, Russia does not need a constitution, Russia needs 50 smart and honest governors. This means that we will find smart and honest civil servants, including governors. Where to get footage? It is clear that personnel are drawn from where people who are very trusted ...

Valery Solovey in an interview with Radio Liberty

The early termination of the powers of the president and new elections will be associated with the prompt introduction of amendments to the Constitution - therefore, Nightingale clarifies, “It is very important that Mrs. Yarovaya headed the Duma Committee on Constitutional Legislation”. But this, in turn, is a hint that, after all, it is Vladimir Putin who will go to the polls - if the necessary changes are made to the legislation.

Early elections, which may take place in the spring of 2017, will be exactly the impetus that will give new dynamics to Russian political life, Solovey explains. The moment is right: "the opposition is morally devastated and crushed, and society is still ready to move by inertia within the framework of the electoral model that has been imposed on it." But in the fall of the same 2017, everything can change, and it is possible that under the influence of negative processes in the economy. "The economic situation is pretty bad,"- Solovey says in an interview with Svoboda, referring to people "much more knowledgeable." The margin of safety of the economy is running out, and the restructuring of public administration, which we are now witnessing, may, according to the political scientist, lead not to an increase in efficiency, but to disorganization. An example is the appearance of the National Guard and the negative effect, according to the political scientist, that it had on the capacity of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

“If the planned personnel changes begin to be carried out at least halfway, we will see the disorganization of the entire apparatus of power from top to bottom”, - warns Valery Solovey.

Who will go "the other way"?

The mention of the “window of opportunity” that may open (how symbolically!) in the fall of the seventeenth, the words about “growing misunderstanding, irritation and confusion in all strata of society” suggest: is Russia threatened by a new revolution? And if so, who will be its driving force?

“Even in the case of the most massive changes, it is not about a social revolution. What happened in 1917 will not happen.”, - the political scientist reassures. To a poll about who will support (in case things do come to global changes) performances from below, Nightingale replies: “I think it will most likely be technocrats. …These people do not shine, they prefer not to be public, but they are very influential. As a rule, these are people in the rank of deputy ministers. And some ministers too. These are people who understand that the problems facing the country must be solved based not on ideologies, but on common sense and economic logic.”.

The political scientist believes that the country does not need a revolution as such. What is needed is economic development, the restoration of the normal functioning of education and health care, the effectiveness of the administrative apparatus and the creation of a working legal system. “These are large-scale, but technocratic tasks, they do not imply any ideological background”: just the shells of existing institutions need to be filled with working content.

As for the hypothetical "successor to the president", the answer for today is this: “The best option is a fairly popular leader, not charismatic, a leader who not only should be liked by everyone, but he should cause the least irritation in all groups of society. And who should simply pursue a competent policy.”.

How accurate will be the assumptions of Valery Nightingale, it will become clear after some six months. And maybe even earlier - the situation, as it was said, is developing very dynamically.