From the change of governors, life does not change. Who is lobbying for a change of power in the Russian regions  Changed governors

Image copyright AlEXEY DRUZHININ/TASS Image caption Sociologists say that Russians want change

In the near future in Russia they may be fired in total 10 governors. So the Kremlin is looking for a way to satisfy the public's demand for a renewal of power on the eve of uncontested presidential elections, experts say.

On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the governor of the Samara region, Nikolai Merkushkin. His place was taken by the former mayor of Samara, Senator Dmitry Azarov.

This dismissal is only the beginning of a more massive reshuffling of power. The Kremlin could fire up to nine more governors in the near future, a federal official and several sources close to the Kremlin (all not authorized to comment to the media) told the BBC Russian Service.

Several Russian federal publications previously wrote about the possible dismissal of several more governors, citing their sources.

Merkushkin, who has already been transferred to another job, spoke about such plans on Monday: "Probably, decisions will follow on other governors, I believe, according to a certain list," the ex-governor said at a press conference (quoted by RIA Novosti).

Officially, the Kremlin did not confirm or deny the information about the upcoming replacement of other regional heads.

Why are new governors needed?

In less than six months, presidential elections will be held in Russia. The campaign has not formally begun yet, but Vladimir Putin is expected to run again in this election.

Given the predictability of the campaign and the lack of competition in the upcoming elections, the Kremlin is trying to meet the public's demand for this competition and change through a symbolic change of regional leaders, says political analyst Alexander Kynev.

More than two-thirds of the population has a request for change, Levada Center sociologist Denis Volkov wrote on the website of the Carnegie Center.

Renewal of power is one of the obvious directions of the presidential administration's course during the campaign, and renewal of regional power is one of its obvious components, says political scientist Vitaly Ivanov.

"It's like in the movie" Jaws "- you can't immediately show the whole shark to the viewer. First you need to show the fin and jaws. So here: the resignation of the governors is a prologue. Then it will be more interesting - the renewal of the federal government, "says the political scientist.

Do reshuffles affect election results?

Governors are not only a symbolic power, but also people who will be directly responsible for holding presidential elections in their regions.

“You don’t think that only regional election commissions are involved in organizing elections in the regions? Let it be informal, but it is the task of each governor to organize elections so that they take place in his region in compliance with all procedures laid down by law,” says the BBC. si former employee The Kremlin, not authorized to discuss the organization of the presidential elections.

The task of the new governors will not be easy. The regional elections held in September have so far shown that Russians' interest in the elections is declining, and the previous Duma elections were also remembered for their low turnout. And Putin must win 70% of the vote in the elections with a 70% turnout, RBC claimed, citing the speech of the first deputy head of the presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko.

Officially, the list of regions where replacements of governors can take place has not been announced. Kommersant wrote that reshuffles could take place in the Nizhny Novgorod, Ivanovo, Murmansk, Novosibirsk and Omsk regions, as well as in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Altai Territory and Krasnoyarsk Territory.

These are not protest regions, but in almost all of them United Russia's results in the 2016 Duma elections and Putin's results in the 2012 presidential elections were below the national average (see table). The exception was the Nizhny Novgorod region, where the level of support for the authorities is usually high.

However, the replacement of the governor does not automatically mean an improvement in the election results. For example, in 2016, a few months before the State Duma elections, the Kremlin had already changed the governors of several regions.

Then in the Komi Republic, in the Trans-Baikal Territory and in the Tula Region, where elections were held by new governors, the result of United Russia turned out to be even lower than in the previous Duma elections in 2011 (although the party as a whole improved its result across the country). Only in the Tver region, where there was also a new governor, the result of United Russia this time turned out to be higher than in the previous elections.

There are practically no risks and threats when appointing interim governors on the eve of the presidential election, if the new leader does not initially irritate residents and elites, says political consultant Konstantin Kalachev.

"In any case, there will be experienced political technologists next to any new governor. And local heads of municipalities will be ready to jump out of their pants to prove their competence," adds Kalachev.

In addition, personnel changes can relieve local tension and discontent in the regions, Kynev notes.

For example, in Samara, after the resignation of Merkushkin, people can experience inspiration and even emotional uplift, "because the degree of inadequacy of the policy went through the roof," the political scientist continues.

Merkushkin has been in charge of the Samara region only since 2012, but he is most remembered for a number of statements that caused a scandal: for example, in 2016 he promised the employees of an automobile plant that they would never receive salary payments, as they did not speak in an appropriate tone.

The head of the Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova, called the Samara region among the most problematic in compliance with the electoral law.

Several more governors may resign in the near future. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week that the change of governors is a "permanent process" and "a continuation cannot be ruled out." Among the potential retirees, sources name the heads of the Volgograd region and the Trans-Baikal Territory Andrei Bocharov and Natalia Zhdanova. Among the potential retirees are also age-old governors and those who have been in charge of the regions for a long time. According to the political scientist, "the federal center itself has created a situation where it cannot but carry out a rotation of the governor's corps."

On the forthcoming resignation of the governor of the Volgograd region, former head Executive Committee of the "All-Russian People's Front" (ONF) Andrey Bocharov "Kommersant" on Monday told sources close to the presidential administration (AP). His term of office ends in 2019. “Although the wave of rumors about Bocharov’s departure has already risen several times, now this is a real option: they are looking for candidates to replace him,” one of Kommersant’s interlocutors said. The region expected that the successor would be announced immediately after the end of the vacation of the head of the region. But he went to work. The day before, an additional catalyst for these rumors was edits in articles about Mr. Bocharov in the largest reference aggregators of the Russian Internet. There, October 3 was designated the date of his departure from his current position. "The governor's work is proceeding as usual," his press service said on Monday. Kommersant's source in the AP said that Mr. Bocharov's resignation is likely, but he is not the first in line for rotation.

The press service of the Trans-Baikal head Natalya Zhdanova, whose impending resignation was reported by RBC, also replied that she was "working as usual." A Kommersant source close to the administration of the Trans-Baikal Territory said that Alexei Koshelev was being considered for the post of head of the region. He long time worked as a deputy for the ex-governor Ravil Geniatulin, now he holds the post of deputy head of the Social Insurance Fund. In 2013, Mr. Koshelev was nominated in the elections for the head of the region from the Civic Platform, but did not pass the municipal filter. It was not possible to contact Alexei Koshelev "Kommersant".

The 2019 gubernatorial elections are scheduled to take place in 15 regions. The Kremlin has already started replacing heads in them. So, last week the president fired the head of Astrakhan region Alexander Zhilkin, appointing Acting Governor Deputy Head of the Federal Customs Service Sergei Morozov. On Sakhalin, whose head Oleg Kozhemyako has been appointed acting head of Primorye, the acting head has not yet been appointed.

Most of the heads, whose terms of office expire in 2019, are tipped to resign on different reasons. One of them is age: the head of the Kursk region Alexander Mikhailov is 67 years old (he has been in charge of the region since 2000), the head of the Lipetsk region Oleg Korolev is 66 years old (he has been in charge of the region since 1998), the governors of the Orenburg region and the Republic of Altai Yuri Berg and Alexander Berdnikov - for 65 years. In the administrations of the Stavropol head Vladimir Vladimirov and the Murmansk governor Marina Kovtun, high-ranking officials were arrested, corruption scandals were in the Kurgan region, which is headed by Alexei Kokorin. AT Chelyabinsk region(it is led by Boris Dubrovsky) protests continue over the construction of a mining and processing plant.

Last year, during the rotation of governors, information about resignations also appeared in advance. As a rule, it was confirmed, with the exception of the situation with the Murmansk governor Marina Kovtun.

According to Kommersant's information, the Presidential Administration urged her to resign after a series of criminal cases initiated against officials from her entourage. However, Mrs. Kovtun was able to enlist the support of the former head of the Federal Tourism Agency, the former general director of Norilsk Nickel, Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, and the presidential special envoy for environmental issues, Sergei Ivanov.

According to political scientist Rostislav Turovsky, "the federal center itself has created a situation where it cannot but carry out a rotation of the governor's corps." “The flywheel has started and is very difficult to stop. This is a way to keep the governor's corps under control: the heads of the regions constantly keep in mind that they can be replaced. In addition, it is possible to change governors in favor of influential lobbying groups, when required,” he said. According to the expert, the victims are often weak governors, to whom claims can be made: low results of the party in power in the elections, poor economic development of the region. Mr. Turovsky noted that it is more convenient for the center to rotate in the autumn: “There is time to promote a new interim before the next elections, especially if he is new to politics.”

Ivan Synergiev, Andrey Pertsev

The heads of three more regions resigned - Bashkiria, the Kursk region and the Trans-Baikal Territory. Thus, in two weeks, the leadership of 11 territories out of 85 has changed. In total, this year the authorities have been renewed in 19 subjects of the Federation, and in two years the change has affected almost half of the regions of the country. What is the purpose of such unprecedented changes in the regional elite?

The latest resignations affected one of the two centenarians of the governor's corps - Kursk Alexander Mikhailov, one of the three women - heads of regions Natalya Zhdanova from the Trans-Baikal Territory and the head of one of the largest national republics Rustem Khamitov from Bashkortostan. Putin has already appointed acting officers to Kursk and Ufa – Roman Starovoit and Radiy Khabirov.

As a result, a series of resignations, which began on September 26, has already affected 11 regions. And this is in two weeks. And if you look at it from the beginning of the year, you'll get 19. But it's better to take the figure for two years - that's how much time has passed since the change of the internal political bloc of the presidential administration of Russia and the arrival of Sergei Kiriyenko. Then we get 39 regions - that is, almost half of Russia's 85. And 2018 is not over yet.

That is, we are dealing with a completely clear course of the Kremlin to update the governor's corps as such. After all, such large-scale changes, that is, the replacement of almost half of the heads of regions, have not been in it since the early 90s, when Boris Yeltsin appointed heads of administrations in the independent Russian Federation that became independent after the collapse of the USSR.

But there such a massive renewal was explained by the need to put an end to the power of the first secretaries of the regional committees of the CPSU, replacing them with officials loyal to the Russian leadership. Now we are talking about something completely different.

Although the system of gubernatorial power in Russia seems to have last years, now we are witnessing a transition to a completely new stage of its functioning. Prior to that, she went through three main stages.

Apart from the "zero cycle" with appointments from above (in most regions), which ended by 1996, three main periods can be distinguished.

Direct elections of governors - from the mid-1990s to 2004. At that time, there could be no personnel work of the Kremlin in training governors. Because President Yeltsin and his administration did not conduct any strategic personnel work, not only in the regions, but also in Moscow. And the first term of Vladimir Putin was devoted to restoring the controllability of the country as such. Including through accustoming the existing regional elites to the implementation of federal laws and work in a single vertical of power.

Appointments of governors - from 2005 to 2011. During these years, governors were elected by regional legislative assemblies - on the proposal of the president. Over the years, the governor's corps has changed very seriously - in fact, the main goal of this period was the replacement of incompetent, unable to cope or simply corrupt heads of regions with normal managers, connected with the region or not. However, contact with the voters was lost here: because the appointed head answered to the president and the local parliament (often just a meeting of various clans of regional elites), but not directly to the inhabitants of his region.

Therefore, since 2012, the third stage began - the return to direct elections. At the same time, the process of nationalization of the elite as such has actively begun in the country - with weaning it from dual loyalty, living in two countries, and so on. It was not enough to be a good manager, you also had to prove your ability to listen and hear people. And although the same Popular Front in every possible way forced the governors to really work with the population, not everyone listened, and many simply did not know how to do it.

Part of the process of nationalization of the elite was the transition to strategic personnel work with the nomenklatura - they began to cultivate and lead, select and promote it. This applied to all levels of government, and especially regional ones. The building of a career of an official began - with his movement horizontally, from the region to the center and back with an increase. A similar method was used in the USSR, it is now used in China, but its return to domestic practice has become a landmark moment for the entire personnel policy of the Kremlin.

Since 2016, this work has already been put on stream. Not just the formation of personnel reserves and lifts, but also special education and training programs organized with the support of the presidential administration. One of the most famous is a program based on high school state administration RANEPA. And last year, the Leaders of Russia personnel project was launched to involve the most diverse and bright self-nominated candidates in managerial work. Given the federal structure of Russia and our vast expanses, it is clear that the regions are not only the main source for recruiting managers, but also an ideal platform for their running in and growth.

At the same time, we are talking not just about a new wave of gubernatorial appeals, but about fundamentally new rules for the formation of regional leadership.

Everyone has already noted that many of the new heads of regions have taken the “Kremlin courses” - but most importantly, they got to them not by pull or quota, but by virtue of their personal qualities.

And, when they are appointed to the regions, they will have to prove to the center their managerial talents not only with report numbers, but also with the ability to build work with regional personnel exactly on the same principles as the Kremlin built with them.

That is, to pull up and rely on honest and caring professionals, and not become dependent on the established regional clans and elite groups. And to be able to achieve the trust of people - not only in elections, but also in the course of all their work.

This is a serious swing and a completely different level - but this is precisely the goal that Vladimir Putin sets for himself in his personnel work. What is needed is not just a new regional managerial elite, but a well-functioning mechanism for personnel work with the nomenklatura as such. In which the same heads of regions are no longer just representatives of the regions or Moscow commissars, but part of the all-Russian managerial class. People who can work equally effectively and honestly both in the provinces and in Moscow.

In just the last 10 days, the resignation has affected the head of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Dagestan, the Nizhny Novgorod Region Valery Shantsev, the Samara Region and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug Igor.

Several heirs of the resigned heads of regions are already known. So, a 40-year-old was appointed to replace Shantsev, who previously held the post of First Deputy Minister of Industry of Russia. The Samara region was headed by the former mayor of the regional capital.

The first deputy director of the Russian Guard is being considered as the main candidate for the post of head of Dagestan. Koshin will be replaced by a 38-year-old who has worked as deputy head since November 2014.

Next in line, according to an informed interlocutor, is the resignation of the Omsk governor.

“This will be completed by the 10th (October 10), as a result, from 8 to 11 replacements for new candidates for governors will be proposed, taking into account those that have already been announced. The number of resignations depends entirely on the decision of the president,” explained a person close to the Kremlin.

According to him, the replacement of the head Omsk region long overdue.

“Yes, changes are required in the Omsk region to improve manageability in the region,” the source said.

Earlier, the press secretary of the head of the region called the information about the planned resignation "an artificially created wave of rumors" and said that Nazarov's schedule was scheduled several weeks in advance.

Political scientists from the Minchenko Consulting holding have compiled their own list of governors who may soon lose their post as head of the region. This became known from the expert report "Politburo 2.0 and the governor's corps."

The governors were evaluated according to nine criteria: for each of them it was possible to get from three to 10 points. The criteria for evaluating the work of the heads of regions were divided into "bonuses" and "fines".

The first political scientists attributed the presence in the subject big projects, a recognizable image of the governor and his support by the near-Kremlin forces. The “penalty” criterion included federal and regional conflicts, as well as criminal cases and arrests of relatives of the heads of regions.

The experts came to the conclusion that the next heads of the regions that will be on the list "for departure" will be the heads of Kalmykia, North Ossetia, Altai, Novosibirsk, Murmansk, Omsk, Vladimir, Ivanovo and Voronezh regions, as well as the heads of the Altai and Primorsky territories.

All candidates received low marks - from four to nine points. At the same time, the head of Kalmykia, Alexei Orlov, received the lowest score - his experts rated it at four points. Five points were given to the head of the Novosibirsk region. The head of the Murmansk region, the governor of the Altai Territory and the head of the Omsk region Viktor Nazarov have no less low scores - they received six points each.

Political scientists recognized the mayor of Moscow, the head of the Tula region and the head of the YaNAO as the most persistent leaders - they all scored 19 points each.

A member told Gazeta.Ru that the immediate resignation of the governor of the Kemerovo region is not ruled out, primarily due to age. According to her, the reason for the change of most heads of regions is the course towards rejuvenation of personnel. As for the timing of resignations, one must proceed from the fact that the current president of Russia will go to another term next year.

“By this time, it is necessary that the newly appointed heads of regions gain confidence in their posts, orient themselves, and take control. They need to be given a temporary backlog in order to establish themselves. It is undesirable to change the heads of such large regions immediately before the presidential elections, ”the political scientist pointed out.

© Photo from kremlin.ru

The President of the Russian Federation dismissed the heads of the Astrakhan region Alexander Zhilkin and Kabardino-Balkaria Yuri Kokov and replaced the acting head of Primorye Andrei Tarasenko. Experts believe that about ten more governors remain under the threat of replacement, and note that the reshuffle is partly influenced by the results of the September 9 elections.

The recent and future resignations of governors affect, first of all, those officials who hold their positions for a long time, says Ilya Grashchenkov, director of the Center for Regional Policy Development. As the expert told the correspondent of Rosbalt, the Kremlin continues the line on the placement of "technocrats" who will follow the line of the federal center.

“In Primorye, the expected castling of candidates took place: instead of the disastrous Andrei Tarasenko, they appointed Oleg Kozhemyako from the Far East, who managed to be governor in both the Amur Region and Sakhalin. This is an attempt to win back Primorye from the Communist Party, but how Kozhemyako will succeed is another question. The change of Yuri Kokov to Kazbek Kokov in Kabardino-Balkaria is an “intra-teip” permutation. However, since Kazbek Kokov comes from the presidential administration, it can be said that the line of the federal center in the Caucasus is being strengthened. The Astrakhan region, where Alexander Zhilkin was replaced, is an important point on the map, the “gateway to Russia”. Although the governor was coping with business, he was also replaced by Sergei Morozov, who is closer to the Kremlin, ”explained Ilya Grashchenkov.

According to the expert, another 10-15 governors may fall under rotation during the autumn. “Heads who either sit in their places for a very long time, or because of their age it is time for them to leave their posts, remain under attack. Governors of the Republic of Altai Alexander Berdnikov, Mordovia Vladimir Volkov, Kursk Region Alexander Mikhailov, Lipetsk Region Oleg Korolev are at risk. There are regions where political instability is observed: this is the Murmansk region with the governor Marina Kovtun, the Chelyabinsk region with Boris Dubrovsky. There are regions where the economic situation is weak, for example, the Tver region. Despite the fact that Igor Rudenya has been working there as a governor not so long ago, his position has significantly weakened. In the Ulyanovsk region, Governor Sergei Morozov showed the worst result in the elections for „ United Russia“. A special question is about the Smolensk region, where the governor Alexei Ostrovsky is from the Liberal Democratic Party. In connection with the fact that this party has recruited two new governors, the question will arise whether to deprive it of Smolensk. There are several regions where the heads can go for a promotion. A separate issue concerns the North Caucasus Federal District. Kokov became the first, but replacements are also possible in a couple of regions, ”Ilya Grashchenkov listed.

During the fall, we should expect the replacement of heads of regions in which voters will have to elect new governors in a year, says Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute for Contemporary Economic Development. As the political scientist said, in 2019 elections are expected in 15 regions, and in two more heads will be elected by legislative bodies. “In the Kursk region, the governor has been in power for a long time, there may be questions for him. In the Lipetsk region - the same situation. There should be elections in the Kurgan region, and in the Altai Republic. In the Stavropol Territory, the current governor has been in power not so long ago, but there are a number of questions for him about his relations with the elites. It is more difficult to say who from this list will not be replaced. Now there are clashes between elite groups and centers of power, which may have interests in each region. Some of the governors from this list will remain, but most will be replaced, ”the political scientist believes.

The results of the September 9 elections are forcing the federal center to take a more careful approach to appointing new governors to the regions, political analyst Maxim Zharov believes. He clarified that the rotation of the heads of regions as a whole is planned. The federal center appoints new governors so that they get acquainted with the situation in the regions on the spot, have time to work, adapt, and prepare for the elections. However, the approach to the selection of new officials has become less formal.

“As for yesterday's resignations and appointments, in at least two cases we are talking about the fact that the Kremlin is reacting to the operational situation in the regions and, in accordance with this, appoints temporary acting ones. I mean the appointment of Oleg Kozhemyako to replace Andrei Tarasenko in Primorye and the appearance in Kabardino-Balkaria of a new man named Kokov. After the scandalous second rounds happened, the Kremlin will listen more closely to operational information from the regions where the change of governors is coming, ”Maxim Zharov is sure.

The resignations of governors this fall take place according to a planned rotation, but they are influenced by the September 9 election factor, and political figure, director of the Institute of Actual Economics Nikita Isaev. “It is important for the Kremlin to ensure a high-quality electoral cycle on the next single voting day. Otherwise, the popular protest may even spill over beyond voting for the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, or A Just Russia. So far, the protest moods are inside this tub of four parliamentary parties, which, by and large, represent one party. Then the situation can become more dangerous. It is clear that there is fatigue from Alexander Zhilkin in the Astrakhan region. The tension in Kabardino-Balkaria showed that Yuri Kokov was not ready to manage the situation. Well, in Primorye, a 100% option for the consolidation of the elites and confidence in winning the elections is needed, so they settled on Oleg Kozhemyako, ”said Nikita Isaev.

According to the expert, the socio-economic situation of the region does not play a special role in choosing a governor who will be dismissed. The socio-economic situation in the regions is generally similar, and more importantly, the ability of the head of the region to work and negotiate with local elites. “Governors who already had to leave in the near future, or those from whom there is fatigue, will be sent to resign. These are, for example, the governor of the Lipetsk region Oleg Korolev, the Kursk region Alexander Mikhailov. These are also relatively new governors, but those who “do not pull” the situation: Boris Dubrovsky in the Chelyabinsk region, Alexander Berdnikov in the Altai Republic, Marina Kovtun in the Murmansk region. The risks associated with them are quite high, and the Kremlin will take into account the mistakes, will bet on other candidates,” Nikita Isaev believes.

Many governors are already packing their bags, new managers will take their place. However, changing the boss is unlikely to solve the accumulated problems. The people are tired not so much of specific individuals as of a system in which they do not influence the decisions of the authorities. Today, too, the federal center is placing new "acting" without being interested in the opinion of the inhabitants of the regions.

Dmitry Remizov